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Slow Recession Recovery Predicted

univestUnivest Economist Gary Wolfer says the economy has had six consecutive quarters of positive growth, but recovery is slow compared to previous recessions. “For example, the amount of unemployment that occurred during this last Great Recession is in excess of every postwar recession that we’ve had.  This is not your standard garden variety recession.  This really took a toll, specifically on workers in the construction industry.  Those jobs I don’t think are coming back.”

He says he’s projecting Gross Domestic Product growth of 3.5 percent or better this year, but it’s unlikely the unemployment rate will drop below 9 percent, and the long-term jobless will need re-training.  Certified Financial Planner George Toth of Chestnut Investment Advisory in Montgomery County says he agrees that long-term unemployment is a big part of the problem.

“When you have Unemployment Compensation out over two years, and you have more people retiring at 62 and more people going out on disability, I think the damage to the workforce because of this is significant.  I have no clue about the efficacy of re-training because that’s a function of desire and a function of demand.”

Economist Wolfer says the economy is shifting from recovery to expansion, but it will take time.

“In fact we’re nowhere near working it off now because we’re not in a job creation phase of that recovery.  I feel that right now there’s not enough credit out there.  Credit is just not being created.  It’s not a matter of interest rates.”

He says unemployment is still very high, and companies are not yet ready to start borrowing and hiring, so it could be another two years before the economy is back on track.  Financial Planner Toth says smaller companies, with anywhere from a few employees to a few hundred, need to see some sales down the road before they start borrowing and hiring.

“Their demands for credit are a function of demands for their products and services, so if there’s no demand for credit that’s not surprising because there’s no demand for the end products of those companies that are employing people.”

Toth says companies are hiring, but only a few people here and there.  He and Wolfer appeared Tuesday on a special edition of the WNPV talk program “Comment Please by Univest,” looking ahead at the economy in the New Year.
WNPV AM 1440 New to WNPV Radio's "Summer Spectacular Ticket Giveaway" prizes this year are tickets to the Montgomery Theater in Souderton. The mailing of the June ticket location flyer will go out on May 26th. To be sure you're on the list, send your name and email address to info@wnpv1440.com today. Then check out the Montgomery Theater at www.montgomerytheater.org.
Montgomery Theater montgomerytheater.org Young Actors Workshops offer students in grades 3-12 opportunities to learn acting skills while also practicing group dynamics and building literacy. All classes are taught by professional, Philadelphia-area actors and are designed to offer value for students of all levels of experience. The...
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America's Largest Free-Admission Amusement Park | Knoebels - Free-Admission Amusement Park in... knoebels.com Make new memories the old fashioned way with classic rollercoasters, kid-friendly rides, swimming, camping, golf and attractions for the whole family!
WNPV AM 1440
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WNPV AM 1440 Attorney Greg Gifford of Rubin, Glickman, Steinberg and Gifford will host "Legally Speaking" on Wednesday, May 20th, from 11:10 AM until 12 noon, on WNPV Radio 1440 AM. Greg has been practicing personal injury and criminal law for over 28 years and has been voted "Best Lawyer" in The Reporter's Readers' Choice Awards. So get your legal questions together and call 215-855-8211 tomorrow between 11:10 AM and 12 noon to get answers!
WNPV AM 1440 What do you know about the duPont family? Find out about the duPont's and gunpowder by visiting the Hagley Museum and Library in nearby Wilmington, Delaware, with tickets you could win at WNPV's "Summer Spectacular Ticket Giveaways" this summer. To get the complete schedule of when and where the "Giveaways" will be held, send your name and email address to info@wnpv1440.com and then visit www.hagley.org.
Hagley Museum & Library hagley.org Located on 235 acres along the banks of the Brandywine in Wilmington, Delaware, Hagley is the site of the gunpowder works founded by E. I. du Pont in 1802. This example of early American industry includes restored mills, a workers' community, and the ancestral home and gardens of the du Pont family.
WNPV AM 1440 You don't have to be Irish to enjoy the Celtic Fling! Find out by winning tickets to this year's event at the Mount Hope Estate and Winery by coming out to WNPV's "Summer Spectacular Ticket Giveaways!" To find out when and where, send your name and email address to info@wnpv1440.com and you'll receive the flyers detailing the summer of fun. For more about the Celtic Fling, go to http://www.parenfaire.com/celtic/
Celtic Fling and Highland Games at Historic Mount Hope parenfaire.com Join us yet again for the annual Celtic Fling & Highland Games at Mount Hope on the grounds of Mount Hope Estate & Winery! Don't miss out on this unbridled celebration of Celtic culture featuring the very best in music, dancing, food and more!

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